On Thursday IBM will announce that Watson, the computing system that
beat all the humans on “Jeopardy!” two years ago, will be available in a
form more than twice as powerful via the Internet.
Companies, academics and individual software developers will be able to
use it at a small fraction of the previous cost, drawing on IBM’s
specialists in fields like computational linguistics to build machines
that can interpret complex data and better interact with humans.
IBM’s move to make its marquee technology more widely available is the
latest effort among big technology companies to make the world’s most
powerful computers as accessible as the Angry Birds video game.
It is also an indication of how quickly the technology industry is
changing, from complex systems that cost millions to install to
pay-as-you-go deals that provide small companies and even individuals
access to technology that just a few years ago only the largest
companies could afford.
“The next generation will look back and see 2013 as a year of monumental
change,” said Stephen Gold, vice president of the Watson project at
IBM.
“This is the start of a shift in the way people interact with computers.”
IBM is wielding Watson in a fight to control the world of cloud
computing — huge collections of computer servers connected over the
Internet — with other big technology companies like Amazon.com, Google
and Microsoft. It is no coincidence that IBM discussed its Watson news
the same week Amazon was hosting clients at a conference here to pitch
its own computing cloud, called Amazon Web Services or A.W.S.
The competition is still young, but its impact will be significant.
“Companies, governments and people will struggle to figure out what to
do with all this,” said Jamie Popkin, an analyst with the research
company Gartner. “It means there is going to be a new pace and velocity,
making people rethink when humans make decisions, while machines make
other decisions.”
Watson, a project on which IBM spent 14 years, is an artificial learning
system that digests large volumes of information to find hidden
meanings. Initial uses — besides besting humans on game shows — include examining medical patients
and records to find an unexpected diagnosis, a bit like the genius
portrayed in the television show “House.” Other uses include an online
personal shopper and a virtual health aide that tailors exercises by
asking questions.
IBM is opening Watson to more people in part to see what additional businesses might be created.
Watson is prominent, but similar projects are being run by other
companies. On Tuesday, a company appearing at the Amazon conference said
it had run in 18 hours a project on Amazon’s cloud of computer servers
that would have taken 264 years on a single server.
The project, related to finding better materials for solar panels, cost
$33,000, compared with an estimated $68 million to build and run a
similar computer just a few years ago. Akin more to conventional
supercomputing than Watson’s question-and-answer cognitive computing,
the project was the first of several announced at the Amazon conference.
“It’s now $90 an hour to rent 10,000 computers,” the equivalent of a
giant machine that would cost $4.4 million, said Jason Stowe, the chief
executive of Cycle Computing, the company that did the Amazon
supercomputing exercise, and whose clients include The Hartford,
Novartis, and Johnson & Johnson. “Soon smart people will be renting a
conference room to do some supercomputing.”
While revenues of Amazon’s cloud business are still small enough that
the company does not have to disclose them, Amazon officials say Jeff
Bezos, the company’s chief executive, believes A.W.S. could eventually
dwarf Amazon’s businesses in books and merchandise, enterprises with $51
billion in revenue. This year, Gartner calculated that A.W.S. had five
times the computing power of 14 other cloud computing companies,
including IBM, combined.
Since then, IBM has spent an estimated $2 billion to acquire a cloud
company called SoftLayer and has reconfigured Watson as a cloud product.
It also hired buses that drove around the A.W.S. conference in Las
Vegas, sporting ads that said they showed its superiority in cloud
computing.
Besides gaining bragging rights and a much bigger customer base, IBM may
be accelerating the growth of Watson’s power by putting it in the
cloud. Mr. Gold said that Watson would retain learning from each
customer interaction, gaining the ability to do things like interacting
in different languages or identifying human preferences. IBM has taken
steps to keep these improvements for its own benefit, by retaining
rights in user agreements that customers are required to sign.
What is not yet clear is IBM’s plan to make money from taking Watson to
the computing cloud. The company is experimenting with charging for data
storage, or selling computing on a metered basis, like water or
electricity. “There is no question the model will change,” Mr. Gold
said. “You have to have flexibility to handle the breadth of cases we
expect to see.”
It is likely that the competition among advanced computing systems will
increase, lowering prices and delivering more capabilities to whatever
use companies make of them.
This year, Google and a corporation associated with NASA acquired for
study an experimental computer that appears to make use of quantum
properties to deliver results sometimes 3,600 times faster than
traditional supercomputers. The maker of the quantum computer, D-Wave
Systems of Burnaby, British Columbia, counts Mr. Bezos as an investor.
courtesy of The Newyork Times
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